>They aren’t opening the models out to the public

Meta just literally did that though...

Not having to work for living. Amazing new tech and scientific breakthroughs. Life extension. Clean energy and cleanup of the environmental damage we have already done. Space travel and colonization. Renaissance of art and entertainment.

Not even in top 100 crazy subs in my opinion. Have you checked r/collapse, r/conspiracy or many, many others? Yeah, lately this sub got a bit too popular thanks yo ChatGPT, etc., but there are a lot crazier subs. Even r/Futurology is a doomer central now.

>Less than 5% of a programmers time is spent physically writing code

Not sure where you work at, but I am a principal SDE with 16 YoE and even though I spend most of my time in meetings, helping more junior team members or just on communication in general I try to shoot for 40-50% of my time actually writing code and Copilot does help with that (I'd say maybe 20% productivity increase). Even our dev manager probably spends more than 5% of his time writing actual code (but most dev managers don't of course).

From that table it looks like it will be 6x more expensive than ChatGPT's model. It looks like you need 600 units per instance vs. 100. Not sure how this translates into raw token cost though, but it seems that it is going to be more expensive once they expose serverless pay-as-you-go pricing. text-davinci-003 is $0.02 per 1k token so this could be $0.12 per kilotoken.

32k tokens would mean approximately 150 kB of text. That is a decent sized code base! Also with this much context memory the known context saving tricks would work much better so this could be theoretically used to create code bases of virtually unlimited size.
This amazes me and also (being a software dev) also scares me...
But, as they say, what a time to be alive!

Completely agree. There are only 2 options:

1. We merge with the machines
2. We get exterminated by them

I prefer option 1. It will obviously begin with computer/brain interfaces like neuralink but as the machine part of our new psyche becomes more and more dominant we will probably just shed the meat bags altogether at some point. I hope we will at least keep our meat brains digitized for some time, but eventually it will be nothing but an evolutionary relic without much real importance.

There was that very popular but completely unfounded rumor about 100T param count. It was debunked by Sam Altman himself.

If you think about it for just 1 second you would realize that 100T param model would need at least 200 TB of VRAM or 2560 Nvidia A100s...

32k tokens would mean approximately 150 kB of text. That is a decent sized code base! Also with this much context memory the known context saving tricks would work much better so this could be theoretically used to create code bases of virtually unlimited size.

This amazes me and also (being software dev) also scares me...

But, as they say, what a time to be alive!

Wow, yeah, this looks amazing. My biggest issue with GPT-3 is the relatively small context window. This will open so many new possibilities.

Exactly this, Google has several very powerful LLMs in play. Looking at the slow motion disaster that is the Bing chat it looks to me that it was perhaps prudent for them to wait a bit instead of rushing.

Google is very strong in LLMs as well, they have several models of excellent quality. For example Google PaLM is 3x bigger than GPT-3.

However, it is rumored that Bard is a scaled down version of Lamda, only a 2B parameter model but trained on a lot more data than GPT-3. The size would probably make it somewhat less powerful, but also dramatically cheaper to run. It is also possible they have some secret sauce that would make a lot smaller model competitive. We shall see.

I think the Google's problem is that they currently completely dominate search and any disruption is simply not good for them as they have everything to lose and not much to gain. Also search is pretty much the only way Google makes money. So this is existential for them. But make no mistake, they are the clear leader in AI in spite of recent advances by OpenAI and Microsoft.

The Roko's basilisk fiasco was hilarious.

You may me joking, but "conservative media" coverage of ChatGPT was almost exclusively about how "woke" it is...

Not about what an incredible breakthrough it is, the societal impact, potential massive job loss, etc., but how it will write a poem praising Biden but not Trump.

Thank you, great concept. In my case, though, the "amnesia" part is not that accurate since this case definitely makes me reconsider everything Zeihan said or will say in the future. But also I was kind of sceptical of Zeihan before so this was just more confirmation that he is, in fact, full of shit.

>If you drill down on that code you can understand every line of it.

You should try it. It is 275 B parameters (numbers) which drive how ChatGPT responds. Let us know how it's going!

Machine learning models have been black boxes for a while now and GPT-3 is one of the biggest ones...

Yes, I think this would be a path forward. This really depends on administration though, I can't see GOP abandoning their small government mantra anytime soon (a mantra that will be outright deadly soon). If Dems are in power (quite likely) I can see massive FDR like programs taking place. Maybe financed by value added tax on AI labor.

There is a lot of things we can do instead of an UBI.

>Now ask yourself what else Zeihan was an idiot about.

Yes, this. The few times Zeihan talked about a topic where I would consider myself better informed he was way off, but speaking very confidently. Not unlike ChatGPT, just Zeihan's accuracy is much lower...

Also, he has been doing engagements for oil and gas industry and I think that would add some additional bias regarding EVs and climate change.

He could be right about some things, but I am not able to discern which ones. So my default with him is to take anything he says with a huge grain of salt....

The way he was describing the current state of AI was completely inaccurate. Talking about if/else statements to describe machine learning models for example.

The part with medical records and blockchain made 0 sense.

All stated super confidently. Some of his conclusions were not completely off mark, but it was clear he has very poor understanding of machine learning. This video made me realize that he is probably bullshitting on many other topics as well. I just don't consider him a serious person at all.

I would take anything that Zeihan says with a GIANT grain of salt.

Here he is confidently talking about AI although it is clear he's way out of his depth: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8jEmIDwqnL4

Also, Zeihan is known to be doing speaking gigs for the oil and gas industry as well. Definitely not an unbiased source.

Contractor, plumber, renovator, physical jobs in unpredictable environments are going to be the hardest to replace.

But also I would focus on areas of growth. Mechanical engineering could be good as it applies to robotics which is going to be absolutely huge very soon. Better would be even some kind of specialized robotics degree. Not that these jobs are not going to be augmented by AI, they will be, but there will be huge demand that won't stop until almost everything is automated.

I also think software engineering is gonna do ok, yes, it will be heavily augmented by AI, but as price of software plummets due to productivity gains it could open new avenues of applying software, or improving software, areas for which it is currently too expensive. Robotics is large;y software as well. But the best days are probably coming to an end, sadly. But who knows... Machine learning experts are probably gonna do very well for some time.

Bobo got her GED (a requirement for Congress) only in 2020. She was well into her 30s at the time. And I wouldn't be the least surprised if she cheated on it...

I was secretly hoping to be pleasantly surprised that it would be a Republican, but of course it is a Democrat!

Bobo studying machine learning would be a sight to see!

>If they will try to protect jobs

They might, but it will definitely not be slowing down the development. AGI is the invention to end all inventions and if the US is the first one to develop it that will give it a massive eg up (to put it extremely mildly). Imagine weapons development in an AGI scenario - it would make enemy armies look like Roman legions in comparison. It is fucking scary but if we don't get there first someone else will - most likely China and that would be much scarier.

I would like to see a CHIPS act like development or ideally a massive, CERN-like, inter-government project to develop AGI the "right way". Pour trillions into it if necessary.

LLMs are still incredibly limited and ONLY operating on text. AGI would be an independent agent that would be able to replace any human task independently. We're still quite far from it. There are whole classes of problems where a 5 year old performs better than ChatGPT.