Well yeah

-Bad economic data (on unemployment and growth) makes the FED drop rates. But there can be other causes (like inflation getting under control after a soft landing). And in fact there are pivots that are not underlined in you graph (like always with you 🏳️‍🌈 astrologer bears)

• Bad economic data also makes the S&P drop

But it doesn't mean that the market will go down when the FED pivots and that you should be bearish because the FED might pivot

It depends when you think you're gonna need to monney. If it's 10 years or more you should probably buy an index fund (and no bonds). In order to know which index fund (small/large caps and which country) I suggest asking on the r/investing forum.

For someone that is not willing to work several hours a day on investing. The best strategies are not the funniest ones unfortunatly.