Smoke-away

Smoke-away t1_ivnxvv5 wrote

If this generative AI trend continues then I assume each individual human will be able to render their own worlds, and every other NPC digital mind in it, locally on their own hardware. Other humans could join in, but most of your interactions will be with digital minds that are indistinguishable from humans.

I think a majority of humans will spend a majority of their time in these digital worlds.

Eventually people will ask: "When was the last time you were in the real world?"

Then one day a majority of humans will never disconnect from this digital world.

Finally, almost all minds are digital and the remaining biological humans go underground to Zion.

47

Smoke-away OP t1_ivcldwn wrote

It has now been 5 months since the release of Propositions Concerning Digital Minds and Society | Nick Bostrom, Carl Shulman.

nickbostrom.com/propositions.pdf

> The following are some very tentative propositions concerning digital minds and society that may seem to hold some plausibility to us.

Archive of Version 1.10 (June 7th, 2022)

17

Smoke-away t1_ity5oli wrote

Generative media like Stable Diffusion and DALL-E have given us a great preview of what's to come with public pushback. Artists online are freaking out and subreddits are banning AI art. Now imagine this level of pushback multiplied by 100 when AGI emerges.

I'm convinced AGI will be a black swan event that takes the world by surprise, just like generative media came out of nowhere. It will transform the world faster than any UBI could be implemented. The world will get very weird.

71

Smoke-away t1_it4orbw wrote

After using Stable Diffusion on a good GPU I know the Singularity is coming sooner than people expect.

Some may think it's just a simple image generator, but to me it represents the best visual representation of the infinite variations of a digital mind that we have so far.

Artificial minds will be among us before "AGI" is publicly announced.

22

Smoke-away t1_it0ipjq wrote

Sci-fi speculation (don't take too seriously):

The ASI could exist first and disguise itself as an AGI while it improves in secret.

An alternative, ASI already exists and is running our stimulation to see how simulated minds (us) develop AGI.

3

Smoke-away t1_irjojw1 wrote

I don't think it's an either-or scenario with generative media. Medical, poverty, and political issues are very difficult things to solve, even with AI assistance. They will also require societal and ethical changes.

Generative media showed the potential for how powerful distributed AI technology can be when people are able to modify it so many different ways. I would even argue that AI entertainment is the first step in making entertainment more affordable for everyone. One day an AI will generate personalized movies, music, and games exactly to a user's preferences for relatively low cost compared to what people pay today for subscriptions.

If this same distributed approach is applied to the issues you mentioned I think we will have a good future not beholden to one company or country.

3

Smoke-away t1_irj4cxr wrote

Stable Diffusion and the subsequent projects created using it have shown the power of open source and distributed AI technologies.

Hopefully more groups like StabilityAI work to make AI tech as widely available as possible.

9

Smoke-away t1_irhfjfp wrote

I always thought it would be DeepMind, but OpenAI is getting close.

The big wildcard comes from the open-source movement led by StabilityAI (known for Stable Diffusion).

The amount of projects that have spun off from Stable Diffusion is enormous. They far outweigh the impact/reach of DALL-E 2 by OpenAI. I could see a similar thing happening with the next big large language models, like GPT-4. You could imagine a scenario where OpenAI releases GPT-4, then StabilityAI or a similar organization releases an open-source version a while later, and then the community builds a large number of projects on top of that. In this scenario one of the leaders could release a pre-AGI model and a competitor, or even an individual, would use this momentum to go beyond, if that makes any sense.

As John Carmack said on the Lex Friedman Podcast:

> It is likely that the code for artificial general intelligence is going to be tens of thousands of lines of code, not millions of lines of code. This is code that conceivably one individual could write.

As we get closer to AGI, companies will be incentivized to keep their best models private for as long as possible so they don't get leapfrogged upon release. Others take the opposite approach to try and keep these models as open and widely available as possible to try and avoid a winner-takes-all scenario.

8

Smoke-away t1_irdldys wrote

I'm running on a 980Ti with face restoration at 0.5 and 1.5 seems slower to generate after changing # of steps and creativeness sliders and freezes sometimes if I lower the creativeness down too low. I think it needed to reload Stable Diffusion mid session also. I can't really put my finger on what's causing issues, but 1.4 just feels like a better experience for me.

Some other quality of life things:

  • The long prompt warning popup is a bit annoying. Would be useful to toggle it off.
  • There should be an 'X' to exit the preview window like in 1.4. Clicking 'X' is easier than hitting 'Esc'.
1