It’s like an easy layup in basketball, a man wide open down the field in American Football, or an empty net in soccer/hockey. Sure that’s easy for professionals, but most of us would miss.

What percentage of retail traders have ever bought a put? How many are approved, understand the Greeks, and are willing to go? I’d guess it’s insanely low.

I think most are going to baghold to the bottom and continue to DCA. I’m sure some will move some into cash. But this big measurable rush of retail buying puts, I just don’t see it.

And even those of us who are willing to buy these puts, a lot of us are getting scared bc it’s so obvious… this do the opposite of sentiment narrative, which I generally agree with. But if only a tiny percent of retail is actually going to make an active bet here, the act against sentiment argument loses some steam.

I ask this myself. They say 99% of retail is 100% long. Most retail is down way more than the SPY this year.

You ever try to explain to your college educated friends how calls and puts work? They look at you like you’re speaking Arabic. Maybe they can understand calls… but puts? What percentage of retail could buy puts even if they wanted to? Are they even approved through their broker?

I think the more realistic explanation here is that most of retail’s $ is in ETFs in their 401ks, in various longs, and cash. If SPY were to fall off of a cliff, I don’t think the single digit retail who are options approved and willing to press the Put button will matter all that much.

Also sounds like the perfect situation for institutions to take from retail with minimal resistance.