Middle_Name-Danger

Middle_Name-Danger t1_je8i2ib wrote

The utility value of crypto is in money laundering and transferring wealth from one currency to a more desirable currency. The more significant influence on value is speculation.

The bitcoin bubble may never truly pop.

There are definitely some forex arbitrage opportunities in crypto exchanges. Who is best capitalizing on those?

I’m more interested in hearing George Soros’ opinion of bitcoin than Warren Buffett’s. Maybe they’re both too old though. Who is the contemporary Soros? Down the rabbit hole I go…

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Middle_Name-Danger t1_je8h2nj wrote

Okay, alternate ending, the credit crunch never comes, but inflation is unrelenting. Borrowers whose wages cannot keep pace with inflation have to make hard decisions about how to allocate their limited capital. They need a car to get to work, so they prioritize that expense. Now the vehicle that they paid far too much for relative to its age and condition needs costly repairs that they cannot afford, it no longer has utility as transportation, so paying the loan is no longer a priority. They’re too upside down to trade it, so they get approved for a second auto loan because the lenders are chasing yield. Now they can default on the first loan and let the first bank take the loss.

The average auto loan written in the past 2.5 years is worthless. The risk adjusted return is negative. What do balance sheets look like if car notes are treated as liabilities rather than assets?

I’m drunk and rambling, but that doesn’t mean I’m wrong.

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Middle_Name-Danger t1_je8e6pq wrote

Here’s the kicker, a little birdy told me that banks with heavy exposure to auto lending have basically been lending at prime rates to subprime borrowers over the past couple of years.

My guess is Ally Financial is about to be fucked in the next year or two if unemployment goes up significantly. Just like the MTM unrealized losses on MBS and treasuries, it is much uglier if you start applying wholesale book values to auto lending collateral.

These Buffett investment rumors are a smoke screen, he’s too smart to bag hold Ally Financial anymore than he already is.

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Middle_Name-Danger t1_je89dk6 wrote

I read news, look at charts, and guess if the price is going up or down, how much it will change, and how long that will take. My long term gains are around -80%

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Middle_Name-Danger t1_iz672ff wrote

The more universal parts and less complex, the more reliable and easy to maintain they’ll be. That will limit you to the cheaper and least efficient models though. Stay away from the spine-fine Trane and American Standard units, they are harder to clean and fail more often than traditional fins.

Models rated for use near the sea coast are going to be the most corrosion resistant.

Also, the installation is more important than the equipment brand. The best equipment installed by a hack will be terrible, average equipment installed by a seasoned pro will be great.

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