I said one breakthrough. They need to have some sort of medium term memory, or continuous learning.

Not everyone thinks that more scale is needed. Many people such as Elizeir Yudkowsky believe that scale is actually not part of AGI. EY once said that a true AGI running on a 286 would be enough to be dangerous.

We are asymptotically approaching the singularity is nearer release date.

> our climate models are a lot more reliable than anyone's guess on when the Singularity will happen

I'm pretty sure our climate models are saying that climate change is going to be manage-ably mild.

> the ability to cross/interpolate its knowledge across learned skills

There's no evidence that Gato could do this and if there was, Google would let us know. When we finally get to see a generalist agent in a public demonstration, it will be interesting to see if it acts like multiple separate systems that each do their own tasks or if it will actually have a general, integrated way of relating to the world.

It's been a few years since my last latin class, what century is XVI century?

How is this different from AlphaFold?

> safe SCP

I don't feel safe...

Does the gas station consent?

Everything follows an S-curve. With classical videogames, we have already passed the steep part of the curve, which is why progress in games seems to have slowed down. I say classical videogames, because once we have immersive realtime AI-generated experiences, we will see a whole new class of videogames which will follow their own S-curve. AI is currently approaching the steep part of its curve.

Why do our future overlords want to illegally transport us across national borders?

Your arms hangin' limp at your sides

Your legs got nothin' to do

Some machine's doin' that for you

Didn't we see this already a week ago?

April 9. Definitely an Aries.

> AGI will likely happen in the 2060’s because that is the scholarly consensus among machine learning experts.

They only run these polls every few years. I'm certain if a poll of ML engineers/scientists were run today, the average would be in the 2040s. Most of the more vocal people in the industry (Sam Altman, Demis Hassibis) regularly predict on Twitter very short timelines.

Wow. What do you think will be next then?

Schmidhuber's lab uploaded all their work that year.

When you do think we'll see long-term coherence?

You can hold non-conscious entities at gunpoint and force them to talk philosophy of mind but not conscious entities. You can use this feature of the simulation to set up whatever crazy philosophy thought experiments you want.

This resembles Numenta's/Jeff Hawkens' theory about how the neocortex works, where the brain keeps thousands of 3D models of different objects in the environment.

Anime was a mistake.

What exactly can Saycan do? All I've seen it do is deliver a sponge and misplace an empty coke can.

None of this is even close to replacing/being competitive with human researchers yet, right? How close are we to "Advanced Chess" where human researchers and AI systems work together to improve AI models?

My best guess is that youtuber Anastasia.

That's a free space