Yeah we're all still serfs hacking away with scythes.. oh wait..

Who's the Twitter user? Is he someone important?

Freaking get shit on cancer. You'll be gone in 20 years and we'll laugh you out the door.

Is their inability to do casual reasoning a mathematically proven thing or has it just not seen success yet? What's the deal with this? I see it a lot so was curious.

Hardware problem. We don't have the compute to run models big enough. Some software problems as well but mostly we've been seeing those solve themselves with scale.

Our climate models are reliable for a world without progressing technology, they take into account a subsystem of the world without integrating the rest. This is why forecasts are so often wrong and humans are so bad at it.

Note: This is true of all forecasting in non isolated systems, not ragging on climate forecasts specifically.

Id prefer to believe in a simpler and more general forecast such as growth of computation, which shows a consistent and predictable rise over the years.

AI companionship - I think this will grow at a surprising rate once we can talk to them like it's facetime.

Yeah I'm just talking about purely algorithmic improvements. So if we create an AGI on the worlds largest supercomputer. If it codes itself up 10x more efficient. Now there's 100s of computers that would be able to deploy the new AGI, and we're off to the races.

Unless, of course, it can't find improvements like that and then yeah you're right we'll have to wait around to build more supercomputers and make faster chips.

But overall I think still with the former situation it'd be a couple years before we started seeing large civilization wide gains from the AI and it's progeny. Not like a next day thing as people seem to think. But not 10 years either.

I think it depends on how well the AGI can optimize itself. If the AGI realizes we're doing AGI 10(00)x less efficient than is possible, deployment timeline will increase.

Yes it opens up the possibility for large scale networks that use this type of formulation. So it's hugeness will be dependent on how useful larger versions of those networks turn out to be.

This

Can anyone explain why this is such a big deal? What's it going to be used for?

Sometimes I'm amazed how solutions seem to come right as problems get too big to handle.

My guess would be that due to compute being limited, we will likely use it for common good systems. At which point your 'job' will be anything that you wanted to work on that doesn't directly benefit other people.