Lol. It's not a huge impact even if it's repetitive. That's the part you don't seem to grasp. Fuel might add 10% at the retail level if the cost of fuel DOUBLES. Avian flu TRIPLED the retail cost. You can't tell the difference between 10% and 300%. One of us for sure.

I do this for a living, I give projections to the largest public and private restaurant groups in the US. And I have yet to miss. I predicted the massive impact in food cost and sustained supply chain woes I May 2020 and spent a year getting laughed out of the office before everyone started asking me to tell them what was going to happen next.

Eh, I get banned from a lot of forums so I'm not overly attached to a moniker. This was a random gen one that I use on most of my casual posts.

Fuel has a very limited effect on retail food pricing. $1500 in increased fuel costs is nothing when the trailer is pulling 40,000# of chicken. Versus avian flu tripling the price. Fertilizer cost is fuck all for a farmer compared to drought. Like I said, OP has the right idea but the wrong driving causes. Since this is a finance forum it's important to be able to delineate.

Not. Even. Close.

I said drought, husbandry and avian flu. You can't read for shit.

Restaurants and hospitality consulting. The consulting component info all of the supply chain management for different restaurant groups on programs like Foodbuy, Buyers edge and other GPOs. It has me connected at multiple points of the supply chain, from farmers and ranchers of all sizes to broadliner distributors to varying sizes of restaurant and food retailers.

Probably about the same as 2008 when you adjust for inflation.

Lettuce, tomatoes, peppers...produce will join the fray.

No, it's not. Fertilizer was more expensive in 2008/2012

The premise is correct but your facts are kind of irrelevant.

1. The current drought is resulting in 30%+ drops in yields, and for some crops like tomatoes they're just tilling plants back into the ground or letting them rot because they can't get water. For some crops,ike strawberries, it's a short term price hike. Anything that grows on a tree in a drought area, like almonds, is at serious risk of a much longer spike. It will take 10+ years to recover crops grown on trees. Almond farms in California are a very real risk that no one is paying attention to. In the Midwest it's worse, because drought is going to fuck with soil salinity. Farmers dropped fertilizer on the ground that then didn't get proper absorption. It's going to require several rounds of crop rotations to rebalance the soil chemistry and will impact their ability to use fertilizers on the next couple of rounds, reducing yields even more.

2. Animal husbandry is severely fucked. Right now beef prices are on the drop. Everyone thinks it's great, but the real reason is that there's excessive slaughter going on because ranchers know they can't afford to feed cattle through winter. Cows are being slaughtered at record numbers too, which means we're 3-4 years out on getting steers back to slaughter to make up the demand. Similar issues for pork, except that china is the real pork problem. They're consuming so much pork that they're building 20+ story slaughterhouses and will continue to keep very high pressure on pork, particularly pork belly prices.

3. Bird flu what? The last round of avian flu killed over 50 MILLION poultry animals. It's the largest outbreak in history. In the past the infection rates were only about 1/4 from interaction with wild foul. Now they're estimating as much as 80% of the infection is coming from wild foul, which would seem to indicate a much more infectious and pervasive avian flu is making the rounds. Compounded with the increased demand for eggs for vaccine production and the poultry pressure isn't going away anytime soon. Another round of avian flu and poultry might make beef look affordable. Wait for the Audubon society next round of wild bird survey to see how it's playing out in nature too.

I could go on and on there's at least another half dozen major influences including diesel price, Ukraine, worker shortage etc that are also more minor influences. Crazy part is all of them compounding at the exact same time. It's a perfect storm, and famine is now back on the menu, which means destabilizing governments as well.

Islam forbids Muslims to keep dogs, and the punishment for that is that the one who does that loses one or two qirats from his hasanat (good deeds) each day. An exception has been made in the case of keeping dogs for hunting, guarding livestock and guarding crops .

Abu Hurayrah (may Allah be pleased with him) narrated that the Prophet (peace and blessings of Allah be upon him) said: “Whoever keeps a dog, except a dog for herding, hunting or farming, one qirat will be deducted from his reward each day.” Narrated by Muslim, 1575.

‘Abd-Allah ibn ‘Umar (may Allah be pleased with him) said: The Messenger of Allah (peace and blessings of Allah be upon him) said: “Whoever keeps a dog, except a dog for herding livestock or a dog that is trained for hunting, two qirats will be deducted from his reward each day.” Narrated by al-Bukhari, 5163; Muslim, 1574.